Leader Forecast Accuracy Score
mean absolute (or scale-relative) error of point forecasts vs recorded actuals
Leader Forecasting Accuracy
Individual · — · Behavioral scoring of elicited forecasts against recorded actuals (proposed)
→ Read the Handbook entry for Leader Forecasting Accuracy — its measures, the owned Principia rendering, and the evidence.
Definition
A leader's ability to predict their own organization's measures (e.g., engagement scores, attrition rates, operational outcomes) in advance of actuals. Posited as a measurable, expected, LEARNABLE leadership attribute (Tetlock-adjacent: cf. the judgmental-forecasting / superforecasting literature on forecasting as a trainable skill). Two distinct subcomponents, registered as child constructs: (a) point accuracy — closeness of point estimates to actuals — and (b) calibration — interval honesty, i.e., whether stated uncertainty intervals contain actuals at their nominal rate. Proposed PA-original construct (provenance: pa-original); psychometric properties unestablished.
Also known as: Leader Forecast Skill · Forecast Strength
Instruments measuring this construct
No instruments linked to this construct yet.
Instruments link to constructs via instrument.constructs_covered[]; this rail fills as the curator promotes new rows.
Operational metrics for this construct
Leader Forecast Calibration Score
interval score (interval width + coverage-miss penalty) + 80/90 interval hit rates vs nominal coverage
Top effect-size relations
No effect-size rows tied to this construct yet. EffectSize ingest is staged behind the curator-promotion CLI; this rail fills as rows land. Ranking: |value| × quality-grade weight.
Interventions targeting this construct
No interventions in the registry currently target this construct. The intervention library (PRN-047) fills as the curator promotes new rows from the applied organizational-development literature.
Citations
No citations explicitly link to this construct yet.