Principia

Leader Forecast Calibration Score

operationalbehavioral · leadership · score · individual

Interval honesty of a leader's forecasts: whether stated 80%/90% intervals contain actuals at their nominal rates, scored with the interval-score (width penalty + miss penalty) / Brier family. Proposed (pa-original); no normative benchmarks established.

How it’s computed

Formula
interval score (interval width + coverage-miss penalty) + 80/90 interval hit rates vs nominal coverage
Measurement model
operational (a formula over systems data) — not a reflective survey scale; “reliability” here means data quality, not internal consistency

What it operationalizes

This metric measures the construct(s) below from operational data. Through them, it connects to the meta-analytic relationship network — the bridge from what you measure operationally to what the science knows.

Use it

Track Leader Forecast Calibration Score and its drivers in the People Analytics Toolbox — the registry’s evidence wired into deployable measurement.

Related metrics

Executive Alignment Index

Per-dimension dispersion of leaders' elicited priorities plus each leader's distance from the leadership-team centroid; tight = aligned, wide = the team disagrees. Level-aware (alignment expectations differ by org level). Proposed (pa-original); no normative benchmarks established.

Leader Forecast Accuracy Score

Point-estimate accuracy of a leader's forecasts of their own organization's measures, scored against recorded actuals. Proposed (pa-original); no normative benchmarks established.

Programmatic access: /api/v1/metrics/metric.leader_forecast_calibration_score · /api/v1/evidence-statements?construct=construct.leader_forecast_calibration.