Registry · Priors

construct.autonomy predicts construct.task_performance

normal · weakly_informative · 3 studies · N = 43,795

Distribution

Storage scale (Fisher z)
Prior PDF · normalnormal distribution. Storage scale (Fisher z). 95% CI ≈ [0.238, 0.309]; mean ≈ 0.273.0.2000.2370.2730.3100.347z0density

mean ≈ 0.273 · 95% CI ≈ [0.238, 0.309]

Reader scale (r)
Prior PDF · normalnormal distribution. Reader scale (r). 95% CI ≈ [0.234, 0.300]; mean ≈ 0.267.0.1990.2330.2670.3010.335r0density

mean ≈ 0.267 · 95% CI ≈ [0.234, 0.300]

Weakly informative prior. This prior is weakly informative. It will nudge your posterior but won't overwhelm it; expect data to do most of the work in modest samples.

Intervals

Confidence interval (95%) — uncertainty about the mean ρ
[0.23, 0.30]
Credibility interval (95%) — distribution of the true effect across settings (the Bayesian prior)
[0.21, 0.32]
I² (heterogeneity) — share of total variance from between-study differences
90% — the contributing studies disagree almost completely; read the pooled value as a midpoint of conflicting findings, not as one population's effect

The true effect is ~constant across settings — it generalizes.

SD_ρ≈0 — true effect is ~constant across settings; generalizes (observed-score scale until artifact correction, PRN-058)

Evidence provenance

published ρ=0.27 (k=3, high heterogeneity (I²=0.90)); no primary-deployment evidence yet

Sourceρ (r)Scope
Published literature0.27k = 3 · N = 43,795

No primary-deployment evidence yet — this prior rests on published literature alone. As anonymized, aggregated effect sizes from real deployments are contributed, they appear here as a distinct, publication-bias-free source, fused with the literature into a posterior estimate.

Code

Drop this prior straight into your model. Snippets generated from the synthesized distribution + parameters.

target += normal_lpdf(beta | 0.273472, 0.0183193);
beta = pm.Normal("beta", mu=0.273472, sigma=0.0183193)
brms::prior(normal(0.273472, 0.0183193), class = "b")
# base R sample
rnorm(N, mean = 0.273472, sd = 0.0183193)
np.random.normal(loc=0.273472, scale=0.0183193, size=N)

Parameters

FamilyParameters
normalI2 = 0.9007, mu = 0.2735, sigma = 0.01832, r_mean = 0.2669, k_studies = 3.000, tau_squared = 0.0008945, fisher_z_bias = -0.005345, r_mean_bare_bones = 0.2722

Synthesis

Method
random_effects_meta
Informativeness
weakly_informative
Replication status
meta-analytic
k_studies
3
n_total
43,795
Last updated
2026-07-16T01:06:08.971Z

Quality distribution

GradeCount
A3
B0
C0
D0

Source articles

The research this prior is synthesized from — each is a full dossier (findings, the models it informs, and what the literature says).

Contributing effect sizes

Effect-size detail pages land with a later sub-ticket; for now, ids link to the filtered list. Browse all rows via /registry/effects.