Leader Forecast Accuracy Score
mean absolute (or scale-relative) error of point forecasts vs recorded actuals
Leader Forecast Point Accuracy
Individual · — · Point-estimate error scoring against actuals (proposed)
→ Read the Handbook entry for Leader Forecast Point Accuracy — its measures, the owned Principia rendering, and the evidence.
Definition
Subcomponent (a) of Leader Forecasting Accuracy: closeness of a leader's point estimates to subsequently observed actuals (absolute / relative error family). Distinct from calibration — a leader can be accurate on average while overconfident in their intervals, and vice versa. Proposed PA-original construct (provenance: pa-original); psychometric properties unestablished.
Also known as: Forecast Accuracy (point estimates)
Instruments measuring this construct
No instruments linked to this construct yet.
Instruments link to constructs via instrument.constructs_covered[]; this rail fills as the curator promotes new rows.
Operational metrics for this construct
Top effect-size relations
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Interventions targeting this construct
No interventions in the registry currently target this construct. The intervention library (PRN-047) fills as the curator promotes new rows from the applied organizational-development literature.
Citations
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