Handbook of Organization Measurement

Leader Forecast Point Accuracy

construct.leader_forecast_point_accuracy

Subcomponent (a) of Leader Forecasting Accuracy: closeness of a leader's point estimates to subsequently observed actuals (absolute / relative error family). Distinct from calibration — a leader can be accurate on average while overconfident in their intervals, and vice versa. Proposed PA-original construct (provenance: pa-original); psychometric properties unestablished.

§1How it’s measured

This is a behavioral construct — an event recorded in HR systems, not a self-report. It is measured as an operational metric with a formula, not a questionnaire; a Likert scale here would be a category error.

Leader Forecast Accuracy Scorebehavioralindividual

Point-estimate accuracy of a leader's forecasts of their own organization's measures, scored against recorded actuals. Proposed (pa-original); no normative benchmarks established.

mean absolute (or scale-relative) error of point forecasts vs recorded actuals · score

§3The math on what we know

Synthesized priors from the live registry: pooled r, studies (k), total N, top study grade, and heterogeneity. Rows flagged for heterogeneity or single-study evidence are directional, not settled — read them as a central tendency.