Handbook of Organization Measurement

Leader Forecast Calibration

construct.leader_forecast_calibration

Subcomponent (b) of Leader Forecasting Accuracy: interval honesty — do a leader's stated uncertainty intervals contain actuals at their nominal rate (e.g., 90% intervals covering ~90% of actuals)? Scored with the Brier / interval-score family (interval width penalty + miss penalty; hit rates vs nominal coverage). Distinct from point accuracy. Proposed PA-original construct (provenance: pa-original); psychometric properties unestablished.

§1How it’s measured

This is a behavioral construct — an event recorded in HR systems, not a self-report. It is measured as an operational metric with a formula, not a questionnaire; a Likert scale here would be a category error.

Leader Forecast Calibration Scorebehavioralindividual

Interval honesty of a leader's forecasts: whether stated 80%/90% intervals contain actuals at their nominal rates, scored with the interval-score (width penalty + miss penalty) / Brier family. Proposed (pa-original); no normative benchmarks established.

interval score (interval width + coverage-miss penalty) + 80/90 interval hit rates vs nominal coverage · score

§3The math on what we know

Synthesized priors from the live registry: pooled r, studies (k), total N, top study grade, and heterogeneity. Rows flagged for heterogeneity or single-study evidence are directional, not settled — read them as a central tendency.