construct.person_organization_fit predicts construct.task_performance
normal · informative · 2 studies · N = 2,910
Distribution
Historical evidence. This prior's contributing evidence is older than 15 years on average (centroid year 2005.02, ≈20.980000000000018 years old); treat the estimate as historical.
Intervals
- Confidence interval (95%) — uncertainty about the mean ρ
- [0.04, 0.27]
- Credibility interval (95%) — distribution of the true effect across settings (the Bayesian prior)
- [0.03, 0.27]
- I² (heterogeneity) — share of total variance from between-study differences
- 44% — moderate heterogeneity
The true effect varies across settings — moderators likely matter.
SD_ρ>0 — true effect varies across settings; likely moderated (observed-score scale until artifact correction, PRN-058)
Evidence provenance
published ρ=0.15 (k=2, replication: meta-analytic); no primary-deployment evidence yet
| Source | ρ (r) | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Published literature | 0.15 | k = 2 · N = 2,910 |
- replication: meta-analytic
- aging literature (freshness=0.37)
No primary-deployment evidence yet — this prior rests on published literature alone. As anonymized, aggregated effect sizes from real deployments are contributed, they appear here as a distinct, publication-bias-free source, fused with the literature into a posterior estimate.
Code
Drop this prior straight into your model. Snippets generated from the synthesized distribution + parameters.
target += normal_lpdf(beta | 0.154883, 0.0596973);beta = pm.Normal("beta", mu=0.154883, sigma=0.0596973)brms::prior(normal(0.154883, 0.0596973), class = "b")# base R sample
rnorm(N, mean = 0.154883, sd = 0.0596973)np.random.normal(loc=0.154883, scale=0.0596973, size=N)Parameters
| Family | Parameters |
|---|---|
| normal | I2 = 0.4352, mu = 0.1549, sigma = 0.05970, r_mean = 0.1537, k_studies = 2.000, tau_squared = 0.003987, fisher_z_bias = 0.02208, r_mean_bare_bones = 0.1316 |
Synthesis
- Method
- random_effects_meta
- Informativeness
- informative
- Replication status
- meta-analytic
- k_studies
- 2
- n_total
- 2,910
- Last updated
- 2026-07-16T01:06:23.050Z
Quality distribution
| Grade | Count |
|---|---|
| A | 1 |
| B | 1 |
| C | 0 |
| D | 0 |
Source articles
The research this prior is synthesized from — each is a full dossier (findings, the models it informs, and what the literature says).
Contributing effect sizes
Effect-size detail pages land with a later sub-ticket; for now, ids link to the filtered list. Browse all rows via /registry/effects.