Registry · Priors

construct.met_expectations predicts construct.voluntary_turnover

normal · informative · 4 studies · N = 22,013

Distribution

Storage scale (Fisher z)
Prior PDF · normalnormal distribution. Storage scale (Fisher z). 95% CI ≈ [-0.206, -0.111]; mean ≈ -0.159.-0.255-0.207-0.159-0.110-0.0620z0density

mean ≈ -0.159 · 95% CI ≈ [-0.206, -0.111]

Reader scale (r)
Prior PDF · normalnormal distribution. Reader scale (r). 95% CI ≈ [-0.204, -0.111]; mean ≈ -0.157.-0.252-0.204-0.157-0.110-0.0631r0density

mean ≈ -0.157 · 95% CI ≈ [-0.204, -0.111]

Historical evidence. This prior's contributing evidence is older than 15 years on average (centroid year 1996.2, ≈29.799999999999955 years old); treat the estimate as historical.

Intervals

Confidence interval (95%) — uncertainty about the mean ρ
[-0.20, -0.11]
Credibility interval (95%) — distribution of the true effect across settings (the Bayesian prior)
[-0.23, -0.08]
I² (heterogeneity) — share of total variance from between-study differences
80%

The true effect is ~constant across settings — it generalizes.

SD_ρ≈0 — true effect is ~constant across settings; generalizes (observed-score scale until artifact correction, PRN-058)

Evidence provenance

published ρ=-0.16 (k=4, high heterogeneity (I²=0.80)); no primary-deployment evidence yet

Sourceρ (r)Scope
Published literature-0.16k = 4 · N = 22,013

No primary-deployment evidence yet — this prior rests on published literature alone. As anonymized, aggregated effect sizes from real deployments are contributed, they appear here as a distinct, publication-bias-free source, fused with the literature into a posterior estimate.

Code

Drop this prior straight into your model. Snippets generated from the synthesized distribution + parameters.

target += normal_lpdf(beta | -0.158667, 0.024171);
beta = pm.Normal("beta", mu=-0.158667, sigma=0.024171)
brms::prior(normal(-0.158667, 0.024171), class = "b")
# base R sample
rnorm(N, mean = -0.158667, sd = 0.024171)
np.random.normal(loc=-0.158667, scale=0.024171, size=N)

Parameters

FamilyParameters
normalI2 = 0.8035, mu = -0.1587, sigma = 0.02417, r_mean = -0.1573, k_studies = 4.000, tau_squared = 0.001532

Synthesis

Method
random_effects_meta
Informativeness
informative
Replication status
meta-analytic
k_studies
4
n_total
22,013
Last updated
2026-05-31T01:07:47.617Z

Quality distribution

GradeCount
A4
B0
C0
D0

Contributing effect sizes

Effect-size detail pages land with a later sub-ticket; for now, ids link to the filtered list. Browse all rows via /registry/effects.