Registry · Priors

construct.pay_for_performance predicts construct.contextual_performance

normal · weakly_informative · 1 studies · N = 7,740

Distribution

Weakly informative prior. This prior is weakly informative. It will nudge your posterior but won't overwhelm it; expect data to do most of the work in modest samples.

Intervals

Confidence interval (95%) — uncertainty about the mean ρ

[0.15, 0.19]

Credibility interval (95%) — distribution of the true effect across settings (the Bayesian prior)

— needs ≥2 studies to estimate (k = 1)

I² (heterogeneity) — share of total variance from between-study differences

— needs ≥2 studies to estimate

k<2 — between-study heterogeneity not estimable; credibility interval / generalization not assessed

Evidence provenance

published ρ=0.17 (k=1, replication: meta-analytic); no primary-deployment evidence yet

• replication: meta-analytic

No primary-deployment evidence yet — this prior rests on published literature alone. As anonymized, aggregated effect sizes from real deployments are contributed, they appear here as a distinct, publication-bias-free source, fused with the literature into a posterior estimate.

Code

target += normal_lpdf(beta | 0.171667, 0.0113688);

beta = pm.Normal("beta", mu=0.171667, sigma=0.0113688)

brms::prior(normal(0.171667, 0.0113688), class = "b")

# base R sample
rnorm(N, mean = 0.171667, sd = 0.0113688)

np.random.normal(loc=0.171667, scale=0.0113688, size=N)

Parameters

Synthesis

Method

single_study

Informativeness

weakly_informative

Replication status

meta-analytic

k_studies

1

n_total

7,740

Last updated

2026-05-30T11:46:49.216Z

Quality distribution

Contributing effect sizes

• effect.479e3263373016bc

Effect-size detail pages land with a later sub-ticket; for now, ids link to the filtered list. Browse all rows via /registry/effects.