construct.conscientiousness predicts construct.task_performance
normal · informative · 4 studies · N = 17,337
Distribution
Historical evidence. This prior's contributing evidence is older than 15 years on average (centroid year 1993.45, ≈32.549999999999955 years old); treat the estimate as historical.
Intervals
- Confidence interval (95%) — uncertainty about the mean ρ
- [0.13, 0.23]
- Credibility interval (95%) — distribution of the true effect across settings (the Bayesian prior)
- [0.10, 0.26]
- I² (heterogeneity) — share of total variance from between-study differences
- 80% — considerable heterogeneity; moderators likely dominate
The true effect is ~constant across settings — it generalizes.
SD_ρ≈0 — true effect is ~constant across settings; generalizes (observed-score scale until artifact correction, PRN-058)
Evidence provenance
published ρ=0.18 (k=4, high heterogeneity (I²=0.80)); no primary-deployment evidence yet
| Source | ρ (r) | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Published literature | 0.18 | k = 4 · N = 17,337 |
- high heterogeneity (I²=0.80)
- replication: meta-analytic
- aging literature (freshness=0.28)
No primary-deployment evidence yet — this prior rests on published literature alone. As anonymized, aggregated effect sizes from real deployments are contributed, they appear here as a distinct, publication-bias-free source, fused with the literature into a posterior estimate.
Code
Drop this prior straight into your model. Snippets generated from the synthesized distribution + parameters.
target += normal_lpdf(beta | 0.182341, 0.0249049);beta = pm.Normal("beta", mu=0.182341, sigma=0.0249049)brms::prior(normal(0.182341, 0.0249049), class = "b")# base R sample
rnorm(N, mean = 0.182341, sd = 0.0249049)np.random.normal(loc=0.182341, scale=0.0249049, size=N)Parameters
| Family | Parameters |
|---|---|
| normal | I2 = 0.8000, mu = 0.1823, sigma = 0.02490, r_mean = 0.1803, k_studies = 4.000, tau_squared = 0.001653, fisher_z_bias = -0.02309, r_mean_bare_bones = 0.2034 |
Synthesis
- Method
- random_effects_meta
- Informativeness
- informative
- Replication status
- meta-analytic
- k_studies
- 4
- n_total
- 17,337
- Last updated
- 2026-07-16T01:06:25.633Z
Quality distribution
| Grade | Count |
|---|---|
| A | 4 |
| B | 0 |
| C | 0 |
| D | 0 |
Source articles
The research this prior is synthesized from — each is a full dossier (findings, the models it informs, and what the literature says).
Revisiting meta-analytic estimates of validity in personnel selection: Addressing systematic overcorrection for restriction of range.
THE BIG FIVE PERSONALITY DIMENSIONS AND JOB PERFORMANCE: A META‐ANALYSIS
Contributing effect sizes
Effect-size detail pages land with a later sub-ticket; for now, ids link to the filtered list. Browse all rows via /registry/effects.